I see the Tories staying in a minority by losing seats in Atlantic Canada, gaining a few in Quebec and Ontario, and losing a couple of more in BC. Right now if the Tories won all of their current seats, they'd still need to add nearly 35 seats to make a stable majority government... could be tough.

Some polls have put the Tories close to the magical 40 per cent mark, which brings them close to a majority government. Some of the Tories tax moves are aimed at soft right-leaning Liberal supporters. If the Dion Liberals completely crumbled (think of John Turner in 1984), there is the possibility the Tories could get a majority.

I think this would take a fatal blunder by the Harper Conservatives. But it's been known to happen... Kim Campbell was well ahead of Jean Chretien leading into the 1993 election, but the absolutely stupid Tory campaign combined with Canadians' pathological hatred of the departed Brian Mulroney saw the PCs go from a majority government to the edge of oblivion. The Liberals would have to deal with their current financial difficulty, find an issue that destroys the Conservatives, and have a very well oiled campaign.

Although the Tories consistently lead the Liberals in opinion polling, one or two well-placed issues can lead to a fatal bleed for a governing party (word of an RCMP investigation into the finance minister allegedly leaking the income trusts decision was followed by a deadly drop in Liberal support in 2006). If the Liberals are well organized and the Tories make a blunder in the campaign, it only takes a couple of dozen seats to turn a Tory minority into a Liberal one.

I dunno... Belinda Stronach crosses the floor to the NDP, and leads them to a majority government?