Harper has softened his image somewhat, but I still don't think he warms up well on the campaign trail. In an election where every seat counts to scrape together a majority, this could be his Achilles heel.

Harper and the press gallery haven't exactly been on the best of terms. Come election time, expect his government to be under much more scrutiny.

I think this is a hold-over from the days of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance. No matter how pragmatic the Tories try to be, Harper still won't score too high on the trust factor... leading to talk of the hidden agenda.

Opposition parties usually have a freer ride in an election, especially if a government has been in power for a long time (AKA: the Liberals heading into the 2006 election). Harper's Conservatives now have a record of sorts... they can't claim to be as fresh as they were prior to taking power.

Harper will probably lose seats in Atlantic Canada and possibly BC. If he lost a total of ten seats he now has between both regions, he'd have to win all of his remaining seats... PLUS another 45 or so for even a bare majority. Ontario and Quebec offer some growing room, but 45 seats would be a huge swing.